We're on track for our expected heat and storms around Minnesota
today.
Round one of storms rumbled through central Minnesota early this
morning with downpours, lightning, gusty winds and hail, but little if
any damage according to storms reports so far. A few clouds and renegade
showers & T-Storms even popped up around the metro as a warm front
pushed through this morning.
Storms and clouds cover the northern half on Minnesota this
morning on GOES 1km visible image.
The warm front marks the leading edge a hot sticky air mass that
features dew points in the 70s. As skies tend to clear in parts of
southern Minnesota and the metro today, temperatures will shoot up into
the 90s. We have a shot at the hottest day of the year if the mercury
makes a run at 96 today in the metro. If we get enough sun, that could
still happen.
A heat advisory is in effect today for the southern third of
Minnesota, including the metro area. The combination of temperatures in
the 90s and dew points in the 70s will push the heat index over 100 in
many areas today.
Main event tonight:
Scattered storms will rumble across northern Minnesota and Wisconsin
today, but it still appears the main event for southern Minnesota will
happen tonight. A cold front will cut into the hot humid air mass,
triggering new development west and north of the metro later this
afternoon and into the evening.
We could get a stray thunderstorm this afternoon, but it still looks
like we're on track for the main batch of storms in the metro between
7pm and midnight. The best chance of a slow moving line of storms moving
into the metro appears to be between 8pm and 10pm. We'll get another
model run this morning that may shed some light on timing, but it will
be best to keep an eye on the sky today and especially this evening.
Much of Minnesota could get another good soaker, with widespread .50"
to 1" rainfall totals possible through tonight.
The best chances for severe weather will be in the form of damaging
winds and large hail, but SPC forecasts about a 10% chance of a tornado
within 25 miles of the metro late this afternoon or this evening.
rg